SPDR Sector ETFs Tue 2025-04-15: 6.1 Strength Score (Strengthened +0.7)

Brian Degracia

15 Apr 2025 • 11 min read

U.S. MARKET STRENGTHENED FOR THE WEEK ENDING TUESDAY 2025-04-15. All 11 ETFs strengthened with eight strengthening enough to change rating. XLU/Utilities strengthened one level and is strongest at 4Strong. XLB/Materials, XLE/Energy, XLK/Technology, and XLY/Consumer Discretionary are weakest at 7Weaker.

This post objectively summarizing current market conditions consists of the following five sections:

I. Introduction
II. Weekly Returns
III. Spectrum Graph Analysis
IV. Today's Market Context
V. Detailed Sector ETF Analysis

Previous four reports:

Friday 4/11/25, 6.3 Strength Score, Strengthened +0.1 from 4/04/25
Tuesday 4/08/25, 6.8 Strength Score, Weakened -1.4 from 4/01/25
Friday 4/04/25, 6.4 Strength Score, Weakened -0.7 from 3/28/25
Tuesday 4/01/25, 5.4 Strength Score, Weakened -0.3 from 3/25/25

I. Introduction

Background

This analysis consists of the Stock Market Organizer stock-by-stock strength analysis applied to the 500 stocks that comprise the 11 SPDR Select ETFs.

These results are combined with overall market environment readings - the Market Strength Score and the Sector Risk Gauge, which reflect "Risk ON" as of Thursday, April 10, 2025 - to discern appropriate portfolio exposure and risk/position management given prevailing market and sector conditions.

Today the Market Strength Score is +28%, low and early as compared to the maximum positive reading of +100%. This is not a prediction that the market will reach +100% in this current run. It is simply a reflection of how stretched, or not, is the market "rubber band."

Here is the corresponding Market Strength Score:

Why do you care?

This dynamic market analysis provides a continuously updated, apples-to-apples comparison of the strengthening and weakening trends in the US market. By tracking the 500 large-cap stocks across 11 key sectors (via SPDR ETFs), this analysis offers valuable insights for investors seeking to harness momentum in their portfolios.

Each week, the analysis clearly identifies which sectors and stocks have gained, remained flat, or lost ground. With this data, investors can objectively assess sector and stock strength, refining their timing and positioning for new investments. Ultimately, this approach aims to enhance long-term portfolio performance by leveraging momentum – a proven market factor – to inform data-driven investment decisions.

Most Important Ranking: Strengthening Status

The following Strengthening Status spectrum graph shows the ETFs based on their current strengthening status, as compared to last week.

Sector rating strengthening and weakening are important signals showing the user where material movement is happening.

These are ordered based on important distinctions - did an ETF strengthen or weaken, enough (or not) to change rating, and where in the ratings scale (aka the spectrum of possibilities) does the ETF currently lie?

This graphic clearly provides this key information at a glance.

The upper and lower portions in these graphics show the same information, presented in different manners. The purpose is to provide a clear understanding of where there is strengthening and weakening, both minor and major, in the sectors that comprise the market.

Comparison of this week vs. the past two weeks. The upper portions show strengthening from the top row down, while the lower portions show strengthening from right to left. These graphics are set up to clearly convey which ETFs/sectors strengthened or weakened, and from/to where this happened. Though it is impossible to determine how long these signals will last (what will be), the critical point is that these are the objective strength levels of these ETFs right now (what is).

Bottom Line Translation

Each ETF/Sector is given a Bottom Line rating below on a scale of -3 (Worst) to +3 (Best) based on A) the ending strength rating of each ETF and B) the strengthening/weakening action of the ETFs during the week, with the five possibilities being 1) strengthened enough to increase rating, 2) strengthened but not enough to increase rating, 3) unchanged, 4) weakened but not enough to decrease rating, and 5) weakened enough to decrease rating.

Current reading as of Tuesday, April 15, 2025. These summary ratings take into account the strength rating and strength action of each of the 11 ETFs for the just-completed week, on a scale of -3 (Worst) to +3 (Best). Below are the readings for the previous two weeks.

II. Weekly Returns

Average Returns

The average returns for the underlying stocks in each ETF are shown below - note this is NOT the return for the ETF for this week, which is shown below in Section IV. Today's Market Context.

The average returns ranged from 3.5% (XLV/Health Care) to 10.2% (XLK/Technology), with 11 positive out of 11 sectors for the week.

The best and worst are highlighted below:

Best:

XLK/Technology, 10.2% average for 69 stocks
XLB/Materials, 8.4% average for 27 stocks
XLI/Industrial, 8.2% average for 76 stocks

Worst:

XLV/Health Care, 3.5% average for 61 stocks
XLP/Consumer Staples, 5.1% average for 38 stocks
XLE/Energy, 5.2% average for 22 stocks

The bar chart shows the AVERAGE returns for the underlying component stocks, meaning the Equal Weight Average returns. The orange markers show the actual ETF return for this period.

High and Low Returns

The following graphic overlays the lowest and highest returns in each sector.

XLK/Technology had the strongest week at +10.2% and XLV/Health Care had the least strongest at +3.5%. Strongest stock at +27%: PLTR/Palantir Technologies Inc (XLK COMPUTER SOFTWARE & SERVICES - Security Software & Services), which strengthened from 3Stronger to 1Strongest. Weakest stock at -14%: CRL/Charles River Labs Intl (XLV DRUGS - Biotechnology), which remained at 9Weakest for the week.

III. Spectrum Graph Analysis

This methodology uses spectrum graphs to obtain key insights unavailable elsewhere.

Spectrum graphs are a key tool in this methodology that reflect where in the spectrum of possibilities currently lies a measured entity (market, sector, industry, sub-industry, stock) between the extremes of 9Weakest to 1Strongest. This helps the user objectively gauge when and if something is at an extreme. In turn, helpful signals are provided by tracking movements within the spectrum of possibilities.

There are currently four types of spectrum graphs in this ETF analysis:

By Strengthening - this is the most important graph, and it clearly shows in order the ETFs/sectors based on their strengthening/weakening performance during the week:
- Strengthened rating (rating change is most important signal)
- Strengthened but not enough to change rating
- Unchanged
- Weakened but not enough to change rating, and
- Weakened rating (rating change is most important signal).
By Type - logically groups the ETFs (for example, interest rate-sensitive, technology-related, consumer-related) for direct comparison with similar ETFs.
By Strongest to Weakest
Alphabetically

The remainder of this section uses types 2, 3, and 4 above to show current performance.

Context: Comparison to Recent Weeks

The following spectrum graphs by ETF Type show recent Tuesday week-to-week changes compared to the current week.

04/01/2025 = Weakened, 04/08/2025 = Weakened, 04/15/2025 = Strengthened.

Current Status: 6.1 Composite Score, Strengthened +0.7 this week

The following spectrum graph "Strongest to Weakest" shows the composition of the ETF ratings that comprise the current composite score, in order of Strength Rating. Below that is a "play" chart (somewhat like a football play diagram) which groups the sectors on a graphic for easy review of what sectors are at what strength ratings and what was their path to arriving at these ratings. This is followed by an Alphabetical spectrum graph.

The ETFs are listed below based on their strength rating.

1Strongest
None

2VeryStrong
None

3Stronger
None

4Strong

XLU/Utilities (STRENGTHENED RATING)

5Average

XLC/Communication (STRENGTHENED RATING)
XLP/Consumer Staples (STRENGTHENED RATING)

6Weak

XLF/Financial (STRENGTHENED RATING)
XLI/Industrial (STRENGTHENED RATING)
XLRE/Real Estate (STRENGTHENED RATING)
XLV/Health Care (STRENGTHENED RATING)

6.1 - Composite Score

7Weaker

XLB/Materials (STRENGTHENED RATING)
XLE/Energy (Strengthened)
XLK/Technology (Strengthened)
XLY/Consumer Discretionary (Strengthened)

8VeryWeak
None

9Weakest
None

IV. Today's Market Context

Indexes and ETFs Weekly Performance

Key Headlines

Marketwatch:

United Airlines is sure it can thrive in ‘uncertain’ economy. Then why did it offer two outlooks?
What the recent rise in ‘real’ Treasury bond yields signals amid tariff worries
Albertsons warns of competition from larger retailers but downplays tariff impact
Trump Seeks Ideas to Reduce Prescription Drug Costs
Wall Street predicts a 10% stock rebound by the end of 2025. Why investors shouldn’t buy the hype just yet.

CNBC:

Nvidia says it will record $5.5 billion charge tied to H20 processors exported to China
Apple airlifted iPhones worth a record $2 billion from India in March as Trump tariffs loomed
OpenAI considering its own social network to compete with Elon Musk’s X
AOC fundraising soars as the New York rep and Bernie Sanders barnstorm U.S. against Trump
How investors are positioning ahead of a big March retail sales report

Yahoo!:

Exclusive: Bessent says 'we have a big toolkit' to handle bond volatility
US tariffs may cost chip equipment makers more than $1 billion
Goldman, Wells Fargo lead $17 billion bank borrowing spree
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq drift lower as tariff chaos pauses for a day
Choppy markets show investors gulping down developments on tariffs and the sluggish U.S. dollar

Key Current Readings

(Current - previous week - 2 weeks ago)
SP500: 5,396.63 - 4,982.77 - 5,633.07
Nasdaq: 16,823.17 - 15,267.91 - 17,449.89
Nasdaq 100: 18,830.23 - 17,090.4 - 19,436.42
Russell 2000: 1,882.92 - 1,760.71 - 2,012.24
10Y Treasury: 4.333% - 4.297% - 4.174%
2YT: 3.826% - 3.732% - 3.883%
Oil (WTI Crude): $61.36 - $58.12 - $70.94
Bitcoin: $83,697 - $77,102 - $84,436
Dollar Index: 100.05 - 103 - 104.27
Gold: $3,262.3 - $2,996.7 - $3,148.1
VIX: 30.12 - 52.33 - 22.29
(CNBC)

V. Detailed Sector ETF Analysis

The following Stock Market Organizer strengthening/weakening analysis looks at the 11 SPDR ETFs and their underlying component stocks for the week just ended, as follows:

ETFs Summaries
1.1 Current: Component Stocks Strength Ratings (1Strongest vs. 9Weakest vs. Ignore Status)
1.2 Current: Component Stocks Positive vs. Negative Weekly Returns
1.3 Historical: 10 Week Ratings by ETF
1.4 Historical: 10 Week Ratings by Week
ETFs Detail
2.1 XLB Materials
2.2 XLC Communications
2.3 XLE Energy
2.4 XLF Financial
2.5 XLI Industrial
2.6 XLK Technology
2.7 XLP Consumer Staples
2.8 XLRE Real Estate
2.9 XLU Utilities
2.10 XLV Health Care
2.11 XLY Consumer Discretionary
Stock Detail (downloads)

1. ETFs Summaries

1.1 Current: Component Stocks Strength Ratings (1Strongest vs. 9Weakest vs. Ignore Status)

The following graphs reflect the composition of each of the ETFs based on their underlying component stock strength ratings which range from 1Strongest to 9Weakest. I only care about the strongest and weakest in each sector and thus categorize as "Ignore" stocks rated from 2VeryStrong through 8VeryWeak.

Top row: XLB/Basic Materials, XLE/Energy, and XLI/Industrial
Second row: interest rate-sensitive ETFs XLF/Financial, XLRE/Real Estate, and XLU/Utilities
Third row: XLK/Technology and XLC/Communications
Bottom row: XLP/Consumer Staples, XLY/Consumer Discretionary, and XLV/Health Care

1.2 Current: Component Stocks Positive vs. Negative Weekly Returns

The following pie charts show the breadth of positive and negative returns for the week for the component stocks of each ETF.

1.3 Historical: 10 Week Ratings by ETF

Below are 10-week historical strength rating summaries of the ETFs, sorted by ETF - each grouping shows the 10-week ratings change for individual ETFs. This shows the path each ETF has taken over the past 10 weeks to arrive at the current strength rating.

1.4 Historical: 10-Week Ratings by Week

Below are 10-week historical strength rating summaries of the ETFs, sorted by week - each grouping shows one week for all 11 ETFs in newest-to-oldest format. This reveals the weekly strengthening/weakening path of all the ETFs.

2. ETFs Detail

Details for each of the 11 ETFs are provided below. Comments:

The top section shows the strength rating of the sectors comprising each ETF, based on the eight original Stock Market Organizer classifications and NOT the 11 ETF classifications. For example, the XLB Basic Materials ETF consists of 19 Basic Materials stocks, 6 Consumer Goods stocks, and 2 Industrial Goods stocks.

The fully detailed Stock Market Organizer world is comprised of 5 levels: stocks -> sub-industries -> industries -> sectors -> market. The sector definitions do not correspond exactly with those of the SPDR ETFs but for this analysis the ETF stocks are used.

The middle section shows the previous 10 weeks' strengthening and weakening of the relevant sectors. For example, since the XLB has Basic Materials, Consumer Goods, and Industrial Goods stocks, these three sectors are shown in the middle section of the XLB detail. The XLF (Financial) has Financial, Services, and Tech stocks.
The bottom section shows strengthening/weakening for the underlying ETF component stocks, and includes the listing of their Stock Market Organizer industries and sub-industries. These stocks are listed in order based on Sub-industry then strongest to weakest comparative stock strength rating. The Basic Materials XLB ETF includes both Newmont Corporation/NEM in the Gold sub-industry within the Metals & Mining industry and Dow Inc./DOW in the Specialty Chemicals sub-industry within the Chemicals industry.

In these bottom sections, one can visually see the strength/strengthening and weakness/weakening of the component stocks in each ETF.

2.1 XLB Materials (27 stocks, small), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 7Weaker = tied for WORST

2.2 XLC Communication Services (22 stocks, small), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 5Avg

2.3 XLE Energy (22 stocks, small), Strengthened at 7Weaker = tied for WORST

2.4 XLF Financial (72 stocks, large), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 6Weak

2.5 XLI Industrial (76 stocks, large), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 6Weak

2.6 XLK Technology (69 stocks, large), Strengthened at 7Weaker = tied for WORST

2.7 XLP Consumer Staples (38 stocks, mid-sized), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 5Avg

2.8 XLRE Real Estate (31 stocks, small/mid-sized), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 6Weak

2.9 XLU Utilities (31 stocks, small/mid-sized), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 4Strong = BEST

2.10 XLV Health Care (61 stocks, large), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 6Weak

2.11 XLY Consumer Discretionary (51 stocks, mid-sized/large), Strengthened at 7Weaker = tied for WORST

3. Stock Detail

The downloadable PDF below lists all component stocks in order of first Strongest to Weakest ETF and second Strongest to Weakest Stock. The difference between this report and the 11 ETF stock listings above is this report consolidates all component stocks whereas the above listings are segregated by ETF.

SMO SPDR ETF Strength Report Stocks 2025-04-15

SMO SPDR ETF Strength Report Stocks 2025-04-15.pdf

2 MB

Download the following Excel file if you are interested in sorting results yourself.

SMO SPDR ETF Stocks Sortable 2025-04-15

SMO SPDR ETF Stocks Sortable 2025-04-15.xlsx

553 KB