SMO Exclusive: SPDR Sector ETFs Strength Report Tuesday 2025-02-25 Unchanged at 4.7 Strength Score

Brian Degracia

25 Feb 2025 • 11 min read

Despite headline weakness, U.S. MARKET UNCHANGED FOR THE WEEK ENDING TUESDAY 2025-02-25. XLP/Consumer Staples, XLRE/Real Estate, and XLU/Utilities strengthened rating. XLB/Materials and XLK/Technology weakened rating. XLU/Utilities is strongest at 3Stronger. XLB/Materials is the sole and weakest-rated ETF at 6Weak.

This post consists of the following five sections:

I. Introduction
II. Weekly Returns
III. Spectrum Graph Analysis
IV. Today's Market Context
V. Detailed Sector ETF Analysis

Last Tuesday's report is available here.

I. Introduction

Background

This analysis consists of the Stock Market Organizer stock-by-stock strength analysis applied to the 500 stocks that comprise the 11 SPDR Select ETFs.

These results are combined with overall market environment readings - the Market Strength Score and the Sector Risk Gauge, which reflect "Risk OFF" as of Friday, February 21, 2025 - to discern appropriate portfolio exposure and risk/position management given prevailing market and sector conditions. Today the Market Strength Score is -86%, advanced but still room to reach the extreme of -100%. This is not a prediction that it will go to the extreme of -100%, it is simply highlighting where the market is relative to a potential extreme.

The negative, advanced but not extreme Market Strength Score reflects a need to be cautious regarding opening new positions.

Why do you care?

This dynamic market analysis provides a continuously updated, apples-to-apples comparison of the strengthening and weakening trends in the US market. By tracking the 500 large-cap stocks across 11 key sectors (via SPDR ETFs), this analysis offers valuable insights for investors seeking to harness momentum in their portfolios.

Each week, the analysis clearly identifies which sectors and stocks have gained, remained flat, or lost ground. With this data, investors can objectively assess sector and stock strength, refining their timing and positioning for new investments. Ultimately, this approach aims to enhance long-term portfolio performance by leveraging momentum – a proven market factor – to inform data-driven investment decisions.

Most Important Ranking: Strengthening Status

The following Strengthening Status spectrum graph shows the ETFs based on their current strengthening status, as compared to last week.

Sector rating strengthening and weakening are important signals showing the user where material movement is happening.

These are ordered based on important distinctions - did an ETF strengthen or weaken, enough (or not) to change rating, and where in the ratings scale (aka the spectrum of possibilities) does the ETF currently lie?

This graphic clearly provides this key information at a glance.

The upper and lower portions in these graphics show the same information, presented in different manners. The purpose is to provide a clear understanding of where there is strengthening and weakening, both minor and major, in the sectors that comprise the market.

Comparison of this week vs. the past two weeks. The upper portions show strengthening from the top row down, while the lower portions show strengthening from right to left. These graphics are set up to clearly convey which ETFs/sectors strengthened or weakened, and from/to where this happened. Though it is impossible to determine how long these signals will last (what will be), the critical point is that these are the objective strength levels of these ETFs right now (what is).

Bottom Line Translation

Each ETF/Sector is given a Bottom Line rating below on a scale of -3 (Worst) to +3 (Best) based on A) the ending strength rating of each ETF and B) the strengthening/weakening action of the ETFs during the week, with the five possibilities being 1) strengthened enough to increase rating, 2) strengthened but not enough to increase rating, 3) unchanged, 4) weakened but not enough to decrease rating, and 5) weakened enough to decrease rating.

Current reading as of Tuesday, February 25, 2025. These summary ratings take into account the strength rating and strength action of each of the 11 ETFs for the just-completed week, on a scale of -3 (Worst) to +3 (Best).

Reading as of Tuesday, February 18, 2025.

Reading as of Tuesday, February 11, 2025.

II. Weekly Returns

Average Returns

The average returns for the underlying stocks in each ETF are shown below - note this is NOT the return for the ETF for this week, which is shown below in Section IV. Today's Market Context.

The average returns ranged from -5.9% (XLK/Technology) to 4.7% (XLP/Consumer Staples), with 4 positive out of 11 sectors for the week.

The best and worst are highlighted below:

Best:

XLP/Consumer Staples, 4.7% average for 38 stocks
XLV/Health Care, 2.8% average for 61 stocks
XLRE/Real Estate, 1.7% average for 31 stocks

Worst:

XLK/Technology, -5.9% average for 69 stocks
XLB/Materials, -3.7% average for 27 stocks
XLE/Energy, -2.9% average for 22 stocks

The bar chart shows the AVERAGE returns for the underlying component stocks, meaning the Equal Weight Average returns. The orange markers show the actual ETF return for this period.

High and Low Returns

The following graphic overlays the lowest and highest returns in each sector.

XLP/Consumer Staples had the strongest week while XLK/Technology had the worst.

III. Spectrum Graph Analysis

This methodology uses spectrum graphs to obtain key insights unavailable elsewhere.

Spectrum graphs are a key tool in this methodology that reflect where in the spectrum of possibilities currently lies a measured entity (market, sector, industry, sub-industry, stock) between the extremes of 9Weakest to 1Strongest. This helps the user objectively gauge when and if something is at an extreme. In turn, helpful signals are provided by tracking movements within the spectrum of possibilities.

There are currently four types of spectrum graphs in this ETF analysis:

By Strengthening - this is the most important graph, and it clearly shows in order the ETFs/sectors based on their strengthening/weakening performance during the week:
- Strengthened rating (rating change is most important signal)
- Strengthened but not enough to change rating
- Unchanged
- Weakened but not enough to change rating, and
- Weakened rating (rating change is most important signal).
By Type - logically groups the ETFs (for example, interest rate-sensitive, technology-related, consumer-related) for direct comparison with similar ETFs.
By Strongest to Weakest
Alphabetically

The remainder of this section uses types 2, 3, and 4 above to show current performance.

Context: Comparison to Recent Weeks

The following spectrum graphs by ETF Type show recent Tuesday week-to-week changes compared to the current week.

02/11/2025 = Weakened, 02/18/2025 = Strengthened, 02/25/2025 = Unchanged.

Current Status: 4.7 Composite Score, Unchanged this week

The following spectrum graph "Strongest to Weakest" shows the composition of the ETF ratings that comprise the current composite score, in order of Strength Rating. Below that is a "play" chart (somewhat like a football play diagram) which groups the sectors on a graphic for easy review of what sectors are at what strength ratings and what was their path to arriving at these ratings. This is followed by an Alphabetical spectrum graph.

The UPPER spectrum graph shows the ETFs in decreasing order of Strength Rating and strengthening for the week. Sectors with the same rating are listed as follows: first, sectors that strengthened rating during the week; second, sectors with ratings that did not change during the week but did strengthen; third, unchanged sectors; fourth, sectors with ratings that did not change during the week but did weaken; and fifth, sectors which weakened rating during the week. The color-coded lines delineate different ratings - 4Strong or stronger are separated by green lines, 6Weak or weaker are separated by red lines, and 5Average is separated by black lines. The MIDDLE "football play" chart clearly shows what sectors are at what strength levels and how each reached these levels. The LOWER spectrum graph is alphabetical.

The ETFs are listed below based on their strength rating.

1Strongest
None

2VeryStrong
None

3Stronger

XLU/Utilities (STRENGTHENED RATING)

4Strong

XLRE/Real Estate (STRENGTHENED RATING)
XLC/Communication (Weakened)
XLF/Financial (Weakened)

4.7 - Composite Score

5Average

XLP/Consumer Staples (STRENGTHENED RATING)
XLV/Health Care (Strengthened)
XLE/Energy (Unchanged)
XLI/Industrial (Weakened)
XLY/Consumer Discretionary (Weakened)
XLK/Technology (WEAKENED RATING)

6Weak

XLB/Materials (WEAKENED RATING)

7Weaker
None

8VeryWeak
None

9Weakest
None

IV. Today's Market Context

Indexes and ETFs Weekly Performance

Key Headlines

"Dow rises, but S&P 500 and Nasdaq fall on tariff fears and weak consumer confidence"
"Falling Treasury yields signal that Trump policies are starting to spook investors"
"Egg prices are surging again. Why Powell and the Fed’s grip on inflation may be slipping."
"The 'Magnificent Seven' heads for correction territory"
"Fed’s Barkin says interest rates may have to rise to combat inflation headwinds"
(Marketwatch)

"Tesla’s market cap sinks below $1 trillion as stock slumps more than 8%"
"S&P 500 slides for a fourth day after consumer confidence data disappoints, Nasdaq drops 1%"
"‘It’s the beginning’: Kremlin cool ahead of more U.S. talks, says Biden ‘messed things up badly’"
"Apple shareholders reject outside proposal to end DEI programs"
"Bitcoin drops to a 3-month low below $90,000 in risk-off move"
(CNBC)

"Nasdaq, S&P slide as Americans sour on economy"
"Super Micro sinks as Nasdaq delisting deadline looms"
"Tesla sales tank 45% in Europe, sending stock spiraling"
"Consumer confidence plunges most in nearly 4 years"
"The Trump crypto rally is fading"
(Yahoo!)

Key Current Readings

SP500: 5,955.25
Nasdaq: 19,026.39
Nasdaq 100: 21,087.24
Russell 2000: 2,170.08
10Y Treasury: 4.3%
2YT: 4.102%
Oil (WTI Crude): $69.12
Bitcoin: $88,216.34
Dollar Index: 106.26
Gold: $2,929.5
VIX: 19.43
(CNBC)

V. Detailed Sector ETF Analysis

The following Stock Market Organizer strengthening/weakening analysis looks at the 11 SPDR ETFs and their underlying component stocks for the week just ended, as follows:

ETFs Summaries
1.1 Current: Component Stocks Strength Ratings (1Strongest vs. 9Weakest vs. Ignore Status)
1.2 Current: Component Stocks Positive vs. Negative Weekly Returns
1.3 Historical: 10 Week Ratings by ETF
1.4 Historical: 10 Week Ratings by Week
ETFs Detail
2.1 XLB Materials
2.2 XLC Communications
2.3 XLE Energy
2.4 XLF Financial
2.5 XLI Industrial
2.6 XLK Technology
2.7 XLP Consumer Staples
2.8 XLRE Real Estate
2.9 XLU Utilities
2.10 XLV Health Care
2.11 XLY Consumer Discretionary
Stock Detail (downloads)

1. ETFs Summaries

1.1 Current: Component Stocks Strength Ratings (1Strongest vs. 9Weakest vs. Ignore Status)

The following graphs reflect the composition of each of the ETFs based on their underlying component stock strength ratings which range from 1Strongest to 9Weakest. I only care about the strongest and weakest in each sector and thus categorize as "Ignore" stocks rated from 2VeryStrong through 8VeryWeak.

Top row: XLB/Basic Materials, XLE/Energy, and XLI/Industrial
Second row: interest rate-sensitive ETFs XLF/Financial, XLRE/Real Estate, and XLU/Utilities
Third row: XLK/Technology and XLC/Communications
Bottom row: XLP/Consumer Staples, XLY/Consumer Discretionary, and XLV/Health Care

The headers for each graphic are color-coded. ETFs rated 4Strong or better have green headings. ETFs that changed rating this week have deep green or red backgrounds. ETFs that strengthened or weakened but did not change rating have pale green or red backgrounds.

1.2 Current: Component Stocks Positive vs. Negative Weekly Returns

The following pie charts show the breadth of positive and negative returns for the week for the component stocks of each ETF.

1.3 Historical: 10 Week Ratings by ETF

Below are 10-week historical strength rating summaries of the ETFs, sorted by ETF - each grouping shows the 10-week ratings change for individual ETFs. This shows the path each ETF has taken over the past 10 weeks to arrive at the current strength rating.

1.4 Historical: 10-Week Ratings by Week

Below are 10-week historical strength rating summaries of the ETFs, sorted by week - each grouping shows one week for all 11 ETFs in newest-to-oldest format. This reveals the weekly strengthening/weakening path of all the ETFs.

2. ETFs Detail

Details for each of the 11 ETFs are provided below. Comments:

The top section shows the strength rating of the sectors comprising each ETF, based on the eight original Stock Market Organizer classifications and NOT the 11 ETF classifications. For example, the XLB Basic Materials ETF consists of 19 Basic Materials stocks, 6 Consumer Goods stocks, and 2 Industrial Goods stocks.

The fully detailed Stock Market Organizer world is comprised of 5 levels: stocks -> sub-industries -> industries -> sectors -> market. The sector definitions do not correspond exactly with those of the SPDR ETFs but for this analysis the ETF stocks are used.

The middle section shows the previous 10 weeks' strengthening and weakening of the relevant sectors. For example, since the XLB has Basic Materials, Consumer Goods, and Industrial Goods stocks, these three sectors are shown in the middle section of the XLB detail. The XLF (Financial) has Financial, Services, and Tech stocks.
The bottom section shows strengthening/weakening for the underlying ETF component stocks, and includes the listing of their Stock Market Organizer industries and sub-industries. These stocks are listed in order based on Sub-industry then strongest to weakest comparative stock strength rating. The Basic Materials XLB ETF includes both Newmont Corporation/NEM in the Gold sub-industry within the Metals & Mining industry and Dow Inc./DOW in the Specialty Chemicals sub-industry within the Chemicals industry.

In these bottom sections, one can visually see the strength/strengthening and weakness/weakening of the component stocks in each ETF.

2.1 XLB Materials (27 stocks, small), WEAKENED RATING TO 6Weak = WORST

2.2 XLC Communication Services (22 stocks, small), Weakened at 4Strong

2.3 XLE Energy (22 stocks, small), Unchanged at 5Avg

2.4 XLF Financial (72 stocks, large), Weakened at 4Strong

2.5 XLI Industrial (76 stocks, large), Weakened at 5Avg

2.6 XLK Technology (69 stocks, large), WEAKENED RATING TO 5Avg

2.7 XLP Consumer Staples (38 stocks, mid-sized), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 5Avg

2.8 XLRE Real Estate (31 stocks, small/mid-sized), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 4Strong

2.9 XLU Utilities (31 stocks, small/mid-sized), STRENGTHENED RATING TO 3Stronger = BEST

2.10 XLV Health Care (61 stocks, large), Strengthened at 5Avg

2.11 XLY Consumer Discretionary (51 stocks, mid-sized/large), Weakened at 5Avg

3. Stock Detail

The downloadable PDF below lists all component stocks in order of first Strongest to Weakest ETF and second Strongest to Weakest Stock. The difference between this report and the 11 ETF stock listings above is this report consolidates all component stocks whereas the above listings are segregated by ETF.

SMO SPDR ETF Strength Report Stocks 2025-02-25

SMO SPDR ETF Strength Report Stocks 2025-02-25.pdf

2 MB

Download the following Excel file if you are interested in sorting results yourself.

SMO SPDR ETF Stocks Sortable 2025-02-25

SMO SPDR ETF Stocks Sortable 2025-02-25.xlsx

554 KB