SPDR Sector ETFs Fri 2025-03-21: 5.5 Strength Score (Weakened -0.1)

Brian Degracia

23 Mar 2025 • 11 min read

U.S. MARKET WEAKENED FOR THE WEEK ENDING FRIDAY 2025-03-21. No ETFs strengthened rating while one weakened rating (XLV/Health Care). XLU/Utilities is strongest at 4Strong. XLB/Materials, XLI/Industrial, XLK/Technology, XLV/Health Care, and XLY/Consumer Discretionary are weakest at 6Weak.

This post consists of the following five sections:

I. Introduction
II. Weekly Returns
III. Spectrum Graph Analysis
IV. Today's Market Context
V. Detailed Sector ETF Analysis

Last Friday's ETF strength report is available here (SPDR Sector ETFs Strength Report Friday 2025-03-14 Weakened -0.5 to 5.4 Strength Score).

I. Introduction

Background

This analysis consists of the Stock Market Organizer stock-by-stock strength analysis applied to the 500 stocks that comprise the 11 SPDR Select ETFs.

These results are combined with overall market environment readings - the Market Strength Score and the Sector Risk Gauge, which reflect "Risk On" as of Friday, March 14, 2025 - to discern appropriate portfolio exposure and risk/position management given prevailing market and sector conditions. Today the Market Strength Score is +20%, an early reading. This is not a prediction that it will go to the extreme of +100%, it is simply highlighting where the market is relative to a potential extreme.

The positive and early Market Strength Score reflects a supportive environment for new longs.

This proprietary Sector Risk Gauge objectively reflects the market's underlying cross-currents which provide valuable information to enhance returns for those seeking to stack strengthening and weakening in their positions.

Why do you care?

This dynamic market analysis provides a continuously updated, apples-to-apples comparison of the strengthening and weakening trends in the US market. By tracking the 500 large-cap stocks across 11 key sectors (via SPDR ETFs), this analysis offers valuable insights for investors seeking to harness momentum in their portfolios.

Each week, the analysis clearly identifies which sectors and stocks have gained, remained flat, or lost ground. With this data, investors can objectively assess sector and stock strength, refining their timing and positioning for new investments. Ultimately, this approach aims to enhance long-term portfolio performance by leveraging momentum – a proven market factor – to inform data-driven investment decisions.

Most Important Ranking: Strengthening Status

The following Strengthening Status spectrum graph shows the ETFs based on their current strengthening status, as compared to last week.

Sector rating strengthening and weakening are important signals showing the user where material movement is happening.

These are ordered based on important distinctions - did an ETF strengthen or weaken, enough (or not) to change rating, and where in the ratings scale (aka the spectrum of possibilities) does the ETF currently lie?

This graphic clearly provides this key information at a glance.

The upper and lower portions in these graphics show the same information, presented in different manners. The purpose is to provide a clear understanding of where there is strengthening and weakening, both minor and major, in the sectors that comprise the market.

The past three weeks Strengthening Status show unchanged to weakening over the past two weeks. The upper portions show strengthening from the top row down, while the lower portions show strengthening from right to left. These graphics are set up to clearly convey which ETFs/sectors strengthened or weakened, and from/to where this happened. Though it is impossible to determine how long these signals will last (what will be), the critical point is that these are the objective strength levels of these ETFs right now (what is).

Bottom Line Translation

Each ETF/Sector is given a Bottom Line rating below on a scale of -3 (Worst) to +3 (Best) based on A) the ending strength rating of each ETF and B) the strengthening/weakening action of the ETFs during the week, with the five possibilities being 1) strengthened enough to increase rating, 2) strengthened but not enough to increase rating, 3) unchanged, 4) weakened but not enough to decrease rating, and 5) weakened enough to decrease rating.

CURRENT reading as of Friday, March 21, 2025. These summary ratings take into account the strength rating and strength action of each of the 11 ETFs for the just-completed week, on a scale of -3 (Worst) to +3 (Best).

II. Weekly Returns

Average Returns

The average returns for the underlying stocks in each ETF are shown below - note this is NOT the return for the ETF for this week.

The average returns ranged from -0.6% (XLB/Materials) to 2.9% (XLE/Energy), with 9 positive out of 11 sectors for the week.

The best and worst are highlighted below:

Best:

XLE/Energy, 2.9% average for 22 stocks
XLC/Communications, 1.5% average for 22 stocks
XLF/Financial, 1.3% average for 72 stocks

Worst:

XLB/Materials, -0.6% average for 27 stocks
XLP/Consumer Staples, -0.1% average for 38 stocks
XLRE/Real Estate, 0.1% average for 31 stocks

High and Low Returns

The following graphic overlays the lowest and highest returns in each sector.

XLE/Energy was strongest this week while XLB/Materials was the weakest. Strongest stock at +10%: XLI AEROSPACE/DEFENSE - Aerospace/Defense Major Diversified, BA/Boeing Co, strengthened from 8VeryWeak to 3Stronger this week. Weakest stock at -9%: XLV DRUGS - Biotechnology, INCY/Incyte Corp, weakened from 5Average to 7Weaker during the week.

III. Spectrum Graph Analysis

This methodology uses spectrum graphs to obtain key insights unavailable elsewhere.

Spectrum graphs are a key tool in this methodology that reflect where in the spectrum of possibilities currently lies a measured entity (market, sector, industry, sub-industry, stock) between the extremes of 9Weakest to 1Strongest. This helps the user objectively gauge when and if something is at an extreme. In turn, helpful signals are provided by tracking movements within the spectrum of possibilities.

There are currently four types of spectrum graphs in this ETF analysis:

By Strengthening - this is the most important graph, and it clearly shows in order the ETFs/sectors based on their strengthening/weakening performance during the week:
- Strengthened rating (rating change is most important signal)
- Strengthened but not enough to change rating
- Unchanged
- Weakened but not enough to change rating, and
- Weakened rating (rating change is most important signal).
By Type - logically groups the ETFs (for example, interest rate-sensitive, technology-related, consumer-related) for direct comparison with similar ETFs.
By Strongest to Weakest
Alphabetically

The remainder of this section uses types 2, 3, and 4 above to show current performance.

Context: Comparison to Recent Weeks

The following spectrum graphs by ETF Type show recent Friday week-to-week changes compared to the current week.

03/07/2025 = Unchanged, 03/14/2025 = Weakened, 03/14/2025 = Weakened.

Current Status: 5.5 Composite Score, Weakened -0.1 points this week

The following spectrum graph "Strongest to Weakest" shows the composition of the ETF ratings that comprise the current composite score, in order of Strength Rating. Below that is a "play" chart (somewhat like a football play diagram) which groups the sectors on a graphic for easy review of what sectors are at what strength ratings and what was their path to arriving at these ratings. This is followed by an Alphabetical spectrum graph.

The ETFs are listed below based on their strength rating.

1Strongest
None

2VeryStrong
None

3Stronger
None

4Strong

XLU/Utilities (Unchanged)

5Average

XLE/Energy (Strengthened)
XLC/Communication (Unchanged)
XLF/Financial (Unchanged)
XLP/Consumer Staples (Unchanged)
XLRE/Real Estate (Unchanged)

5.5 - Composite Score

6Weak

XLE/Energy (Strengthened)
XLC/Communication (Unchanged)
XLF/Financial (Unchanged)
XLP/Consumer Staples (Unchanged)
XLRE/Real Estate (Unchanged)

7Weaker
None

8VeryWeak
None

9Weakest
None

IV. Today's Market Context

Indexes and ETFs Weekly Performance

This week's returns for four key indexes are shown along with the actual returns for the 11 ETFs for the week ending Friday, March 21, 2025.

Key Headlines

Social Security is on the path to privatization, experts warn, led by Elon Musk’s ‘DOGE’
Trump’s reciprocal tariffs hit next week. Here are 4 big hurdles for his plan.
Why bitcoin’s plunge could have further to go despite its recent bounce
Will the stock market’s relief rally continue? Watch for this upcoming economic data.
If you missed out on gold’s record run, take a look at silver
(Marketwatch)

Defiant Chuck Schumer rejects calls to step down as Senate Democratic leader
As Binance works toward redemption, CEO says Trump has been ‘fantastic’ for crypto
5 years into the remote work boom, the return-to-office push is stronger than ever—here’s why
Cramer: As investors hunt for reasons to sell stocks, I’m stepping in to buy — here’s why
‘Transitory’ is back: The Fed doesn’t see tariffs causing long-lasting inflation
(CNBC)

CEO of $30 billion homebuilding empire sees ‘weaker-for-longer’ housing market as consumer confidence plummets
Stocks Get Late Boost as Volume Jumps to 2025 High: Markets Wrap
Stumbling Stock Market Raises Specter of Dot-Com Era Reckoning
Musk tells Tesla employees to hold on to their stock amid protests
Dollar drifts as traders await Trump tariff clarity
(Yahoo!)

Key Current Readings

SP500: 5,667.56
Nasdaq: 17,784.05
Nasdaq 100: 19,753.97
Russell 2000: 2,056.98
10Y Treasury: 4.279%
2YT: 3.977%
Oil (WTI Crude): $68.09
Bitcoin:$86,991
Dollar Index: 104.1
Gold: $3,026.5
VIX: 19.28
(CNBC)

V. Detailed Sector ETF Analysis

The following Stock Market Organizer strengthening/weakening analysis looks at the 11 SPDR ETFs and their underlying component stocks for the just-completed week, as follows:

ETFs Summaries
1.1 Current: Component Stocks Strength Ratings (1Strongest vs. 9Weakest vs. Ignore Status)
1.2 Current: Component Stocks Positive vs. Negative Weekly Returns
1.3 Historical: 10 Week Ratings by ETF
1.4 Historical: 10 Week Ratings by Week
ETFs Detail
2.1 XLB Materials
2.2 XLC Communications
2.3 XLE Energy
2.4 XLF Financial
2.5 XLI Industrial
2.6 XLK Technology
2.7 XLP Consumer Staples
2.8 XLRE Real Estate
2.9 XLU Utilities
2.10 XLV Health Care
2.11 XLY Consumer Discretionary
Stock Detail (downloads)

1. ETFs Summaries

1.1 Current: Component Stocks Strength Ratings (1Strongest vs. 9Weakest vs. Ignore Status)

The following graphs reflect the composition of each of the ETFs based on their underlying component stock strength ratings which range from 1Strongest to 9Weakest. I only care about the strongest and weakest in each sector and thus categorize as "Ignore" stocks rated from 2VeryStrong through 8VeryWeak.

Top row: XLB/Basic Materials, XLE/Energy, and XLI/Industrial
Second row: interest rate-sensitive ETFs XLF/Financial, XLRE/Real Estate, and XLU/Utilities
Third row: XLK/Technology and XLC/Communications
Bottom row: XLP/Consumer Staples, XLY/Consumer Discretionary, and XLV/Health Care

The headers for each graphic are color-coded. ETFs rated 4Strong or better have green headings. Those 6Weak or lower have red headings. ETFs that changed rating this week have deep green or red backgrounds. ETFs that strengthened or weakened but did not change rating have light green or red backgrounds.

1.2 Current: Component Stocks Positive vs. Negative Weekly Returns

The following pie charts show the breadth of positive and negative returns for the week for the component stocks of each ETF.

1.3 Historical: 10 Week Ratings by ETF

Below are 10-week historical strength rating summaries of the ETFs, sorted by ETF - each grouping shows the 10-week ratings change for individual ETFs. This shows the path each ETF has taken over the past 10 weeks to arrive at the current strength rating.

1.4 Historical: 10-Week Ratings by Week

Below are 10-week historical strength rating summaries of the ETFs, sorted by week - each grouping shows one week for all 11 ETFs in newest-to-oldest format. This reveals the weekly strengthening/weakening path of all the ETFs.

2. ETFs Detail

Details for each of the 11 ETFs are provided below. Comments:

The top section shows the strength rating of the sectors comprising each ETF, based on the eight original Stock Market Organizer classifications and NOT the 11 ETF classifications. For example, the XLB Basic Materials ETF consists of 19 Basic Materials stocks, 6 Consumer Goods stocks, and 2 Industrial Goods stocks.

The fully detailed Stock Market Organizer world is comprised of 5 levels: stocks -> sub-industries -> industries -> sectors -> market. The sector definitions do not correspond exactly with those of the SPDR ETFs but for this analysis the ETF stocks are used.

The middle section shows the previous 10 weeks' strengthening and weakening of the relevant sectors. For example, since the XLB has Basic Materials, Consumer Goods, and Industrial Goods stocks, these three sectors are shown in the middle section of the XLB detail. The XLF (Financial) has Financial, Services, and Tech stocks.
The bottom section shows strengthening/weakening for the underlying ETF component stocks, and includes the listing of their Stock Market Organizer industries and sub-industries. These stocks are listed in order based on Sub-industry then strongest to weakest comparative stock strength rating. The Basic Materials XLB ETF includes both Newmont Corporation/NEM in the Gold sub-industry within the Metals & Mining industry and Dow Inc./DOW in the Specialty Chemicals sub-industry within the Chemicals industry.

In these bottom sections, one can visually see the strength/strengthening and weakness/weakening of the component stocks in each ETF.

2.1 XLB Materials (27 stocks, small), Weakened at 6Weak = tied for WORST

2.2 XLC Communication Services (22 stocks, small), Unchanged at 5Avg

2.3 XLE Energy (22 stocks, small), Strengthened at 5Avg

2.4 XLF Financial (72 stocks, large), Unchanged at 5Avg

2.5 XLI Industrial (76 stocks, large), Strengthened at 6Weak = tied for WORST

2.6 XLK Technology (69 stocks, large), Strengthened at 6Weak = tied for WORST

2.7 XLP Consumer Staples (38 stocks, mid-sized), Unchanged at 5Avg

2.8 XLRE Real Estate (31 stocks, small/mid-sized), Unchanged at 5Avg

2.9 XLU Utilities (31 stocks, small/mid-sized), Unchanged at 4Strong = BEST

2.10 XLV Health Care (61 stocks, large), WEAKENED RATING TO 6Weak = tied for WORST

2.11 XLY Consumer Discretionary (51 stocks, mid-sized/large), Strengthened at 6Weak = tied for WORST

3. Stock Detail

The downloadable PDF below lists all component stocks in order of first Strongest to Weakest ETF and second Strongest to Weakest Stock. The difference between this report and the 11 ETF stock listings above is this report consolidates all component stocks whereas the above listings are segregated by ETF.

SMO SPDR ETF Strength Report Stocks 2025-03-21

SMO SPDR ETF Strength Report Stocks 2025-03-21.pdf

2 MB

Download the following Excel file if you would like to sort results yourself.

SMO SPDR ETF Stocks Sortable 2025-03-21

SMO SPDR ETF Stocks Sortable 2025-03-21.xlsx

553 KB