SMO Exclusive: SPDR Sector ETFs Strength Report Friday 2024-11-01
Background
- This analysis consists of the Stock Market Organizer stock-by-stock strength analysis applied to the 500 stocks that comprise the 11 SPDR Select ETFs.
- These results are combined with overall market environment readings (via the Market Strength Score and the Sector Risk Gauge) to discern appropriate portfolio exposure given prevailing market and sector conditions.
Context: Comparison to Previous Weeks
The following graphics show recent week-to-week changes.
The week ending Friday 10/18/24 was strong, the week ending 10/25/24 was weak, and the most recently-completed week ending 11/01/24 was mixed but weighted toward weakening.
Mixed week for the just-completed week ending Friday, 2024-11-01.
Current Status: 4.2 Composite Score, -0.2 this week
4.2 is just below 4Strong and well above 5Average. Per above, this is a weakening of 1.0 ratings from 2024-10-18.
This shows that the top 3 ETFs are XLC/Communications, XLF/Financial, and XLU/Utilities, all rated 3Stronger, though they each arrived at this ranking from different directions.
The weakest ETF is XLP/Consumer Staples.
This shows the ETFs in decreasing order of Strength Rating and strengthening for the week. Sectors with the same rating are listed in order of as follows: first, sectors that strengthened rating during the week; second, sectors with ratings that did not change during the week but did strengthen; third, sectors with ratings that did not change during the week but did weaken; and fourth, sectors which weakened rating during the week. The color-coded lines delineate different ratings - 4Strong or stronger are separated by green lines, 6Weak or weaker are separated by red lines, and 5Average is separated by black lineS.
The ETFs are listed below based on their strength rating.
1Strongest
None
2VeryStrong
None
3Stronger
- XLC/Communications (Strengthened rating)
- XLF/Financial (Weakened)
- XLU/Utilities (Weakened rating)
4Strong
- XLI/Industrials (Unchanged)
- XLK/Technology (Weakened)
- XLY/Consumer Discretionary (Weakened)
4.2 - Composite Score
5Average
- XLE/Energy (Strengthened rating)
- XLV/Healthcare (Strengthened)
- XLB/Basic Materials (Weakened rating)
- XLRE/Real Estate (Weakened rating)
6Weak
- XLP/Consumer Staples (Weakened rating)
7Weaker
None
8VeryWeak
None
9Weakest
None
Today's Market Context
Key Headlines
"Nvidia to replace Intel in the Dow — underscoring the downfall of an industry titan"
"Stock Market Today: S&P 500 logs biggest weekly drop in 2 months despite Friday's gains"
"Weak jobs data can’t stop 10-year Treasury yield’s climb as stock-market rally loses steam"
"All assets posted negative returns in October apart from gold, silver and oil: Deutsche Bank" (Marketwatch)
"Dow closes nearly 300 points higher to begin November as investors shake off weak jobs report" (CNBC)
Key Current Readings
SP500: 5,729
Nasdaq: 18,240
Nasdaq 100: 20,033
Russell 2000: 2,210
10Y Treasury: 4.39%
2YT: 4.21%
Oil (WTI Crude): $69
Bitcoin: $69,520
Dollar Index: 104.32
Gold: $2,746
VIX: 21.9
(CNBC)
Sector ETF Analysis Contents
The following Stock Market Organizer strengthening/weakening analysis looks at the 11 SPDR ETFs and their underlying component stocks for the week ending Friday 2024-11-01, as follows:
- ETFs Summary
1.1 Current Overview
1.2 Historical Summaries - ETFs Detail
2.1 XLB Basic Materials
2.2 XLC Communications
2.3 XLE Energy
2.4 XLF Financials
2.5 XLI Industrials
2.6 XLK Technology
2.7 XLP Consumer Staples
2.8 XLRE Real Estate
2.9 XLU Utilities
2.10 XLV Healthcare
2.11 XLY Consumer Discretionary - Stock Detail (downloads)
1. ETFs Summary
1.1 Current Overview
The following graphs reflect the composition of each of the ETFs based on their underlying stock strength ratings which range from 1Strongest to 9Weakest. Since I only care about the strongest and weakest in each sector, stocks rated from 2VeryStrong through 8VeryWeak are categorized as "Ignore."
- Top row: XLB/Basic Materials, XLE/Energy, and XLI/Industrials
- Second row: interest rate-sensitive ETFs XLF/Financials, XLRE/Real Estate, and XLU/Utilities
- Third row: XLK/Technology and XLC/Communications
- Bottom row: XLP/Consumer Staples, XLY/Consumer Discretionary, and XLV/Healthcare
The headers for each graphic are color-coded. ETFs rated 4Strong or better have green headings - currently, 6 of 11 ETFs qualify. The weakest ETF XLP/Consumer Staples has a 6Weak rating and is the only one with a current rating below 5Average. ETFs that changed rating this week have thick green or red borders. ETFs that strengthened or weakened but did not change rating have thin green or red borders.
1.2 Historical Summaries
Below are 10-week historical strength rating summaries of the ETFs, sorted first by ETF and then by Week. The graphics make it easy to compare strengthening and weakening between ETFs over the most recent 10 weeks.
Sorted by ETF
This graphic shows the past 10 weeks strengthening and weakening segregated by ETF.
Sorted by Week
This graphic shows the past 10 weeks strengthening and weakening segregated by week.
2. ETFs Detail
Details for each of the 11 ETFs are provided below. Comments:
- The top section shows the strength rating of the sectors comprising each ETF, based on the eight original Stock Market Organizer classifications and NOT the 11 ETF classifications. For example, the XLB Basic Materials ETF consists of 19 Basic Materials stocks, 6 Consumer Goods stocks, and 2 Industrial Goods stocks.
- The middle section shows the previous 10 weeks' strengthening and weakening of the relevant sectors. For example, since the XLB has Basic Materials, Consumer Goods, and Industrial Goods stocks, these three sectors are shown in the middle section of the XLB detail. The XLF (Financial) has Financial, Services, and Tech stocks.
- The bottom section shows strengthening/weakening for the underlying ETF components stocks, and includes the listing of their Stock Market Organizer industries and sub-industries. These stocks are listed in order based on Sub-industry then strongest to weakest comparative stock strength rating. The Basic Materials XLB ETF includes both Newmont Corporation/NEM in the Gold sub-industry within the Metals & Mining industry and Dow Inc./DOW in the Specialty Chemicals sub-industry within the Chemicals industry.
In these bottom sections, one can visually see the strength/strengthening and weakness/weakening of the component stocks in each ETF.
2.1 The Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB) - 27 stocks (small) - weakened rating to 5Average
Includes securities of companies from the following industries: chemicals; metals and mining; paper and forest products; containers and packaging; and construction materials.
2.2 The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR ETF Fund (XLC) - 22 stocks (small), strengthened rating to 3Stronger = best rating (tied, XLF/Financials, XLU/Utilities)
Includes companies that have been identified as Communication Services companies by the GICS®, including securities of companies from the following industries: diversified telecommunication services; wireless telecommunication services; media; entertainment; and interactive media & services.
2.3 The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) - 22 stocks (small), strengthened rating to 5Average
Includes companies that have been identified as Energy companies by the GICS®, including securities of companies from the following industries: oil, gas and consumable fuels; and energy equipment and services.
2.4 The Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) - 72 stocks (large), unchanged rating at 3Stronger = best rating (tied, XLC/Communications, XLU/Utilities)
Includes companies that have been identified as Financial companies by the Global Industry Classification Standard, including securities of companies from the following industries: financial services; insurance; banks; capital markets; mortgage real estate investment trusts; and consumer finance.
2.5 The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) - 76 stocks (large), unchanged rating at 4Strong
Includes companies that have been identified as Industrial companies by the Global Industry Classification Standard, including securities of companies from the following industries: aerospace and defense; industrial conglomerates; marine transportation.
2.6 The Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) - 69 stocks (large), unchanged rating at 4Strong
2.7 The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP) - 38 stocks (mid-sized), weakened rating to 6Weak = worst rating
Includes companies that have been identified as Consumer Staples companies by the GICS®.
2.8 The Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLRE) - 31 stocks (small/mid-sized), weakened rating to 5Average
Includes companies that have been identified as Real Estate companies by the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®).
2.9 The Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) - 31 stocks (small/mid-sized), weakened rating to 3Stronger = best rating (tied, XLC/Communications, XLF/Financials)
Includes securities of companies from the following industries: electric utilities; water utilities; multi-utilities; independent power and renewable electricity producers; and gas utilities.
2.10 The Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) - 61 stocks (large), unchanged rating at 5Average
Includes companies from the following industries: pharmaceuticals; health care equipment & supplies; health care providers & services; biotechnology; life sciences tools & services; and health care technology.
2.11 The Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLY) - 51 stocks (mid-sized/large), unchanged rating at 4Strong
Includes companies that have been identified as Consumer Discretionary companies by the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS®).
3. Stock Detail
The downloadable PDF below lists all component stocks in order of first Strongest to Weakest ETF and second Strongest to Weakest Stock. The difference between this report and the 11 ETF stock listings above is this report consolidates all component stocks whereas the above listings are segregated by ETF.
Download the following Excel file if you are interested in sorting results yourself.