SIVB 2023-03-10 implosion - the shorts were right (the market is not dumb)

The graphic below is not to pick on anyone because everyone is wrong in the market all the time. It is simply to prompt the logical question: what is a feasible way for one to incorporate every single opinion worldwide (from those backed by rocket scientist analysis to shoeshiner WAGs)

Homebuilders mid-day 2023-03-10: birds of a feather flock together edition

In this mid-day view of today's homebuilders trading action, spot the firms with the most attractive combinations of financial strength, management, pipeline, and competitive position, among other factors: This is cherry-picked of course and there are certainly differences in each. Knowledgeable industry insiders have insights the rest of

Real Estate 2023-03-09, interest rates are not your friend: what happens when rising cap rates take full effect?

The above is a rhetorical question. The fit will hit the shan. LaSalle lost 55% on a South Coast Metro (Santa Ana) office building bought in 2019. Bought for $255/sf, sold for $115/sf. Spin it however you'd like, there is no escaping this comp in future

Banking's previous bottom 2020-03-23, compare this to 2023-03-09's "fingerprint"

There was no change during the week ending 3/23/20 because all banking stocks were weak as of the prior week. This is not a prediction that the current environment will lead to something like this. It is purely a look at a bottom.  For comparison, see below the

Next (banking) shoe to drop (SIVB -60% today... rising rates not all butterflies and unicorns for financials)?

This is after Silvergate Capital's liquidation announcement yesterday. SVB Financial Group (Silicon Valley Bank) now negative over the past 3 years. Was $755 only 16 months ago. Even before today, this stock had "catastrophe" written all over it. 💡Is "the market" super smart or

Real Estate 2023-03-08: mixed week, Retail least weak and Office most

Office has weakened the past three weeks and is the weakest sub-industry. Mortgage Investment has also weakened the past three weeks. Retail is Average, which leads these sub-industries. All others are Weak. Many of the most-declining stocks this past week were already at the weakest rating. Examples: Uniti Group/Unit

Banking 2023-03-08: all sub-industries weakened

Best of the bunch at the moment is Money Center Banks followed by Southwest Banks and Foreign Regional Banks.  All others are behind these. You never know when the first step in any given direction (up or down) is the first of many or a one-and-done only to reverse. If

Metals & Mining across the board sub-industry strengthening 2023-03-02

Did you know that all metals & mining sub-industries were strong this week? Do you know why? Do you know if this is just a one-hit wonder or is it the start of a long-term uptrend? (No one does.) 💡The journey to 100% returns begins with 1% returns. It is

Energy Strengthened 2023-03-01, still room to strengthen for each sub-industry

This is relevant because the short term turns into the long term. One never knows when an up/strengthening week will become only the first of many. One can only act upon what is happening in the present. Your protection against being catastrophically wrong is to use appropriate position sizing

Materials & Construction 2023-03-01, General Contractors and Residential Construction are strong as Lumber is very weak

Following up this look a couple of weeks ago here is the materials/construction update for 3/1/23. Lumber is much weaker than most of the other Materials & Construction sub-industries. Residential construction slightly down from the last look but is still strong. Detailed downloadable report available below. SMO

S&P500 2023-02-27 - except for basic materials, all sectors weakened (comparatively decent week for energy stocks)

Market weakened this past week and overall is at Average strength. Neither high nor low. This does not say which direction the market will go from here, nor do I care. Predictions are for others. What this analysis can tell you is what is currently strengthening and weakening, at the

The Sector Risk Gauge and the "it's time in the market" claim - what bottoms look like (three questions and two graphics)

This post with the three questions and two graphics below is for those who enjoy parroting the claim "it's time in the market not market timing."   Question 1: excluding dividends what was the market return from March 2000 through March 2013? Answer: 0%. Yes - I

The "crush your emotions or they will crush your portfolio" Market Rule: fear and greed decouple prices from fundamentals

The Berkshire Hathaway 2022 annual letter says: It’s crucial to understand that stocks often trade at truly foolish prices, both high and low. “Efficient” markets exist only in textbooks. Fear and greed are your best friends - when they cause others to go wacko en la cabeza. You -

Market Rule: Believe the Market, not the Marketers (Value vs. Growth, a distinction without merit)

Especially when the market is in a dramatic downturn - the kind which first leads to widespread portfolio devastation and then to generational buying opportunities. Think back to February 19 through March 23, 2020 - practically everything imploded. Many by catastrophically large percentages (such as cruise lines). C'mon

NVDA +14% 2023-02-23: it's about facts not opinion (Fact = it was already strong, Opinion = "it is because of A.I.")

Strong gain for NVDA today. A Yahoo article explains Shares of the graphics chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) rose more than 14% Thursday, despite the fact that the company reported a 21% year-over-year revenue decline for its fourth quarter on Wednesday. The reason? A.I. Fact or opinion? If it is

It doesn't have to be so complicated: How to use Stock Market Organizer information

Dry powder? No = ignore. Yes = proceed. Entry/Sizing/Exit Process 1. Determine max % of portfolio you want to risk on one position - say 2%. For every $100,000 in your portfolio, this would be 2% x $100,000 = $2,000. 2. Find a candidate from Stock Market Organizer in

Electronics 2023-02-21 - all sub-industries weakened this past week

Today's market was down 2% or more for the major indexes and this contributed to the across-the-board weakness for all Electronics sub-industries over the past week. INTC: The Weakest Link Long-time Semiconductor - Broad Line titan Intel is the caboose in its sub-industry. Just a pause before it

Computer Software 2023-02-21 - weakened past two weeks

The industry as a whole has weakened the over the past two weeks and has essentially treaded water over the past four weeks. The biggest three sub-industries (Application Software 86 stocks, Business Software & Services 48 stocks, Information Technology Services 25 stocks) are all Average strength - but the value

S&P500 2023-02-17 - strength unchanged past 3 weeks, but... what if you have energy exposure?

The fastest and most meaningful slice and dice of the S&P500 you're going to see. Know where to look, when, and why. Can you objectively and consistently measure in what sectors, industries, and sub-industries there was weakening and strengthening in the S&P500? If not,

Metals/Mining Mixed 2023-02-13

Stock-by-stock strengthening scores available in the following downloadable file. Note that Gold has weakened the past three weeks and now is at Average strengthening. SMO Metals Mining 2023 02 13 SMO Metals Mining 2023-02-13.pdf 1 MB download-circle

Materials/Construction Mixed 2023-02-13

Stock-by-stock strengthening scores available in the following downloadable file. Note that Residential Construction has "Strongest" rating right now. SMO Matls Constr 2023 02 13 SMO Matls Constr 2023-02-13.pdf 1 MB download-circle

Energy Strengthened 2023-02-13 - all sub-industries

Detailed stock-by-stock strengthening scores are available in the file linked below. SMO Energy 2023 02 13 SMO Energy 2023-02-13.pdf 2 MB download-circle

Banking Weakened 2023-02-10 - all sub-industries

Detailed report downloadable at the link below. SMO Banking 2023 02 10 SMO Banking 2023-02-10.pdf 2 MB download-circle

Real Estate Weakened 2023-02-10 - all sub-industries

Detailed report downloadable at the link below. SMO Real Estate 2023 02 10 SMO Real Estate 2023-02-10.pdf 2 MB download-circle

The "No Matter What You Do, You Are Wrong" Market Rule: Emotional Damage

What is it like to always make the damn wrong decision no matter how hard you try? What do I mean?   You faithfully did all your research. You didn't just buy based on a tip from the shoeshine boy. Then... You bought a stock, and it went up.